Question:
“Do you forecast or time the financial markets? I have heard of psychics who claim to have predicted market crashes. Please provide details. Thanks. A.”
Answer:
Cyclical timing methods (e.g., using comprehensive astrology and numerology) can be applied toward any area in life.
Regarding forecasting and timing financial markets, the challenge includes the extremely high number of variables, and much more so obtaining the correct data (incorporation dates and times, first trade dates and times, etc.). Despite claims, nobody, even the exchanges, has all the absolute correct data. Additionally, there’s the prospect of becoming an adept trader and investor, which can be a full time endeavor.
There exist investment professionals who openly apply (basic) astrology in their work, for example, but none of those well-meaning people are billionaires and I have yet to be impressed with any 5 and 10 year returns that I’ve seen.
Good Financial Pros vs. Wall Street Tricksters
Unfortunately, investment pros are notorious for exaggerating results. The financial newsletter Hulbert Financial Digest independently ranks many experts and is one sure way to know the real story about their annual (and 5 and 10 year) performance. The contrast between the claims they make while being interviewed on financial news TV shows and, or in flashy mailings (e.g., “…average of 120% gains for our picks over the past 3 months!…”), and the actual combined average of all their recommendations as outlined in the Hulbert Financial Digest (“…2% gain for the year, -3.5% over the past 5 years…”) can be quite striking.
Ken Fisher Tells the Truth About the Financial Industry
“…I began learning about investing and the psychology of markets long ago from my father, Philip Fisher (a mentor to Warren Buffet), and have been working in this business for 38 years. I’ve been through quite a few bull and bear markets, and if there is one thing I’ve learned is that everyone is wrong a lot in the long term. In this field if you’re right 70% of the time in the long run you become an absolute legend. That means being wrong fully 30% of the time–a lot. Two problems! Most investors are wrong more than they are right. Then the few who aren’t still suffer wrongness long enough that it often feels like forever…Few investors were right in 2008. Of those who were, almost none were right in 2009. And for those who called 2009 correctly, few have been right so far in 2010. You may suppose this would breed modesty. It hasn’t! Most ‘gurus’ have selected memory. So my advice is to always be prepared to be wrong a lot of the time…” Ken Fisher, 10-25-2010, Forbes (Bold emphasis above is mine.)
Beware of Opportunistic, Deceitful Psychics
Just as most financial “gurus” have selected memory, many high-profile psychics do as well, disappointingly. Every industry has its charlatans.
There is no shortage of psychics claiming to have predicted “market crashes.” Interestingly, and oblivious to many–especially to the psychics’ supporters—by definition, a “market crash” covers multitudes of financial corrections the world sees regularly. Any given year there are “market crashes” in one or more sectors or financial markets around the world, and unscrupulous psychics rush to take credit for predicting the inevitable.
Next time you hear of a psychic predicting “…the last 8 attempted terrorist attacks in America…”, for example, ask the following:
- Why aren’t those predictions (in the exact way they were originally phrased) posted on their website at the time of the prediction, along with the details of the actual thwarted attack when it happened?
- Why is there no running total of all their mundane predictions (e.g., natural disasters such as hurricanes, geopolitical events, Hollywood matters like which famous starlet will get pregnant, missing persons incidents, “stock market crashes,” etc.) on their website?
- Why do they make 100+ predictions, then proceed to highlight only the 4 they got right, obscuring the glaringly obvious fact with affected compassion and New Age slight of hand prose that the predictions are of the sort that any non-psychic could have easily made (e.g., “there will be big storms this summer on the east coast!”), and that most of the related, additional predictions that didn’t manifest are conveniently forgotten?
Always be sure to get the exact wording–including all related content before and after the sound-bite extracted for public relations purposes–of a psychic’s mundane event prediction such as a stock market crash and compare it to the claims they make after the fact.
Hindsight is 20-20, yet unfortunately that hindsight is the basis for fabricated claims by gimmicky psychics. It is no wonder the psychic industry has little respect in the real world.
Such psychic-performers regularly play the victim game and claim to be unfairly targeted by those who “don’t believe in psychics.”
The reality is that the criticism deceitful psychics receive is warranted and if they approached the craft honestly, they would be receiving less criticism and more praise from those other than naive teenagers, those lacking a sense of discernment, the delusional, and groupie aspiring psychics.
The sham psychics who get mainstream media exposure typically manage to do so by hiring an influential P.R. firm to get them on prime-time TV talk shows, or through pay-for-play TV arrangements. These psychic performers aren’t worth your time. You might ask, “But don’t the producers and TV/radio talk show hosts do proper due diligence to make sure the psychics’ claims are accurate?” Surprisingly, they don’t, mostly because only ratings matter to them. The P.R. firm formulates the client’s content and pitch in a way that makes invented “predictions” magically appear as “documented” circumstance.
I believe there exist many very talented and honorable psychics in this world, but you won’t find them boasting at every opportunity about (contrived) mundane event predictions they’ve made.
Assessing Financial Fate of Individuals, Thus a Corporation’s Stock
The magnitude of an individual’s financial success is reflected in the patterns of their natal and timing comprehensive astrology and numerology charts. I’ve found that it’s infinitely easier to analyze the financial fate of individuals (given their birth data is accurate) rather than entire economies, corporate entities, individual sectors, indices or financial markets.
It’s very viable to accurately assess the financial fate of the majority shareholders of a corporation, giving you a very good idea the future outlook of a company’s stock, particularly if the bulk of the shareholder’s or shareholders’ net worth is tied up in the stock. If, for example, 10 individuals own 85% of the stock, identifying dramatic positive or negative financial extremes in those individuals’ comprehensive charts could very well tip you off to major moves in a corporation’s stock price. The issue is the amount of time it takes for such endeavors. While identifying the shared pecuniary ups and downs for 10 people is one thing, doing it for 100 or more is a much more time-consuming and demanding project.
Please see this blog post outlining my prediction of a significant downturn in the stock market.
Copyright © 2011 Scott Petullo